What are the percentages of the Phoenix Suns making the play-in?


Phoenix Suns’ Mikal Bridges reacts after a slam dunk against the Indiana Pacers during the first half of an NBA basketball game Thursday, Aug. 6, 2020, in Lake Buena Vista, Fla. (Kevin C. Cox/Pool Photo via AP)

Four wins in the Orlando bubble and the Phoenix Suns are in the mix to earn a play-in spot.

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What are the odds of the Phoenix Suns making the play-in?

About making

It won’t be easy. The Portland Trail Blazers are streaking up the standings ahead of Phoenix, the Memphis Grizzlies must continue their fall and the Pelicans, Spurs and Kings tail the Suns in the standings.

The Suns have the Miami Heat, Oklahoma City Thunder, Philadelphia 76ers and Dallas Mavericks left on the eight-game seeding schedule. As teams tinker and/or rest for the playoffs, added volatility will become involved in every one of the teams’ schedules who are in the chase for the eighth playoff spot.

What are the odds of the Phoenix Suns making the play-in?

Reminder: The eighth seed will need to beat the ninth in a play-in tournament if the teams are within 4.0 games of one another at the end of the seeding games. For the eighth seed, it’s a double-elimination format, meaning it would have to lose twice in two games to the No. 9 seed to lose its playoff positioning.

Four of the teams in the race for No. 8 are in action Friday, and here’s a look at the standings. But before those outcomes make it outdated, let’s scan the interwebs for the Suns’ odds:

ESPN’s Kevin Pelton

At the end of Thursday night, the Blazers had capped the day’s games with a win over a Denver Nuggets team that pulled its key players — and was already without a handful of starters and rotation guys — late in a close contest.

Thanks to some pestering from our John Gambadoro, ESPN’s Kevin Pelton ran some simulations to put the Suns’ chances at a play-in at 8%.

It would’ve been higher if not for those Nuggets.

The Ringer’s Zach Kram

Phoenix’s playoff odds — that’s to earn the eighth seed to face the No. 1 seed Los Angeles Lakers — are at 4%. Not bad.

Kram also breaks down the race for the final Western Conference playoff spot by matchup.

The most likely for the Suns is a 5% shot at facing the Grizzlies.

Kram also lists a Portland-Phoenix 8-9 matchup at 3% odds and a 1% shot at that same opposition with the Suns holding the higher seed.


FiveThirtyEight has only playoff odds, and the Suns have a 5% chance at making it by their simulations.